JP Morgan forecasts tariff increase for the 2018 renewal

According to a survey conducted by JP Morgan, hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria that lashed Southeast United States in September 2017 are likely to cost insurers approximately 100 billion USD of insured losses in the third quarter of 2017.
Hurricane harvey aftermath in Texas

This heavy bill is poised to upset the results of the markets whose only response rests on a premium increase. The survey also forecasts tariff increases of 10% during the next renewal, a rise that is similar to the one that ensued the 2005 devastating cyclonic season.

While this series of claims is going to slash insurers and reinsurers’ profits, it will, nonetheless, be beneficial to brokers who will reap an increase in commissions without being exposed to losses.

Still, according to J. P. Morgan, Aon’s share rate, currently estimated at 155 USD, would climb to 165 USD whereas that of Marsh & McLennan would go from 90 USD up to 95 USD.

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