Increase of 50% in natural catastrophe premiums by 2050

The Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR) forecasts an average increase of 50% in natural catastrophe insurance premiums by 2050 in France. The reason is the increase in the frequency and intensity of climatic events.

Regions around the Mediterranean, which are less exposed to the outbursts of nature, would record a rise of 30%, against 60% for the Paris region and agglomerations overlooking the Atlantic. These assessments are based on the assumption of a rise of 4° Celsius in the temperature of the planet.

In 2015, the CCR already quantified the impact of a 2° warming by 2050, when the Paris agreement on the climate was signed.

The new estimate, which is still based on a model of météo France, "is certainly very pessimistic", but "it remains realistic in case of non-compliance with the global agreement on the emission of greenhouse gas", the reinsurer says. It also corresponds to the pessimistic 4-degree warming scenario established by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).