Earthquake: Is Istanbul ready for the big one?

Istanbul could not withstand a major earthquake. According to seismological experts, the city of 15 million people is not ready to face a major disaster.

Following the devastating earthquake that struck Izmit (100 km east of Istanbul) in 1999, killing more than 18 000 people, Turkey took preventive measures. The country introduced stricter regulations and created an authority dedicated to disaster and emergency management (AFAD).

Nevertheless, these measures proved to be insufficient. In 2019, the city holds 1.6 million buildings, more than half of which do not meet seismic standards.

The AFAD estimates that the occurrence of an earthquake in Istanbul, similar to the one in Izmit, would result in 30 000 deaths and 50 000 injuries. In addition to that, it could result in 2.6 million homeless and the destruction of 44 800 buildings.

In the previous years, several construction projects such as high buildings, luxurious housing and shopping malls have emerged in Istanbul. Unfortunately, they do not fully comply with safety and seismic risk prevention standards.

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