Tsunami in the Mediterranean: probability of occurrence close to 100%

TsunamiThe study "Probabilistic tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea", published in the scientific journal Pure and Applied Geophysics, suggests that the Mediterranean region is likely to experience a major tsunami.

According to the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, the probability of such an event occurring within the next 30 years is 100%.

Although such a scenario has been suggested for many years, climate change has increased the likelihood of its occurrence.

The Spanish Atlantic coast is one of the areas most likely to be hit by a tsunami due to the Averroes marine fault, located in the Alboran Sea in the Mediterranean, which can generate six-metre-high waves that could reach the Spanish coast in less than 25 minutes. In the Canary Islands, waves can reach over 8 metres in height. In the port cities of Huelva and Cadiz, in south-west Spain, the probability of a one-meter and three-meter tsunami is 10% and 3% respectively.

The report also presents low-risk tsunami zones, including the Cantabrian coast in northern Spain, where water levels would be lower (half a meter), particularly in the communities of Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country.

In light of this risk, the implementation of a tsunami warning system has now become a matter of utmost urgency.

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