The main reinsurance players such as Swiss Re, Munich Re, along with major brokers like Aon are regularly publishing surveys about areas that are most exposed to nature’ fury.
Natural catastrophes in 2016: number of casualties, economic and insured losses
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According to Sigma magazine, the overall provisional cost of natural disasters [4] in 2016 amounted to 150 billion USD, an 83% rise in comparison with the 82 billion USD reported in 2015. Insurers’ borne losses have been estimated at 42 billion USD, compared to 28 billion USD in 2015. The gap between economic damage and insured losses underscores the poor insurance penetration rate in the regions affected.
Still according to Sigma, the number of natural catastrophes reported in 2016 amounts to 160, a 19% decrease in comparison with 2015 when 198 events had been reported.
The consequence of uncontrolled climate change, natural catastrophes such as cyclones, torrential rain or floods have, today, a tendency to occur more frequently and intensely.
Natural and man-made catastrophes: total economic and insured losses (2015-2016)
in billion USD| 2015 | 2016 | 2015/2016 Evolution | Annual average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic losses | ||||
Natural catastrophes | 82 | 150 | 83% | 163 |
Man-made catastrophes | 12 | 8 | -33% | 12 |
Total economic losses | 94 | 158 | 68% | 175 |
| Insured losses | ||||
Natural catastrophes | 28 | 42 | 51% | 46 |
Man-made catastrophes | 9 | 7 | -23% | 7 |
Total insured losses | 37 | 49 | 33% | 53 |
Number of natural catastrophes having occured between 1975 and 2015
The curve above shows continuous growth in the number of natural disatsers [6] occurring during the recent forty years. This rising trend has clearly picked up starting from 1990.
The years 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2015 reported peaks with respectively 142, 149, 167 (1) and 198 (2) natural catastrophes reported worldwide.
(1) http://www.atlas-mag.net/en/article/assessment-of-natural-catastrophes-2003-2013 (2) http://www.swissre.com/library/archive/012016_Catastrophes_naturelles_et_techniques_en_2015_lAsie_subit_des_dommages_substantiels.htmlNumber of casualties related to natural catastrophes
Unlike the number of ever-growing natural catastrophes, the number of the victims having sustained these hazards does not follow the same rising trend. The latter is, however characterized by several peaks that became more frequent starting from 2004, the year when the tsunami ravaged 12 countries on the Indian Ocean claiming the lives of 280 000 people.
In 2010, Nat Cat were equally devastating with 297 000 victims reported. That year was characterized by the drought in Ethiopia, forest fires in Russia, earthquakes in Chile, China and in New Zealand.
Apart from the few peaks reported during the last decade, the number of victims remains relatively stable in spite of the upsurge in extreme natural events. The emergence of new technologies for the detection of natural catastrophes and the dissemination of the standards of anti-seismic buildings particularly in developed countries have significantly limited the number of casualties.
Natural catastrophes 1970-2016: economic and insured damage
in billion USD
Damage, either economic or insured, has reported a substantial increase during the recent 20 years. The general trend remains on the rise.
By and large, the increase in damage is accounted for by the population density and the growing values, especially those pertaining to infrastructures. In developed countries, the rise of insured losses in recent years has been attributed to the concentration of capital in the exposed areas and to the rising insurance penetration rate.
In emerging and developing countries (Southeast Asia, Indian continent, South Pacific, Africa), the gap between economic and insured losses remains quite big. This disparity is accounted for by the poor insurance penetration rate in these regions.
Despite these general findings, economic and insured losses depend on the state of development of the countries affected, whether rich or poor countries.
World map of natural catastrophes: level of exposure to natural hazards per country
The map below displays the level of exposure to natural catastrophes per country. The most exposed regions are represented in red color. With the exception of the United States, Russia and Australia, the natural catastrophe risk is particularly high in emerging countries: (Latin America, Central Africa, East Africa, and Southeast Asia). This probabilistic configuration of the natural hazards has been supplemented by two other maps drawn up on the basis of two different approaches of vulnerability: social vulnerability and economic vulnerability.
World map of natural catastrophes: estimation of risk according to an economic approach
 © JuliaBroska CC BY-SA 4.0 |
Even though poor regions display more substantial concentration of risks, the economic consequences of natural catastrophes are more drastic in developed countries which are the least exposed to this kind of risk. The example of Europe can perfectly explain this finding.
Contrarily, the economic consequences of climate hazards in Africa, in Latin America or in India, areas very vulnerable to the hazards of nature remain quite limited. The poor countries seem to be harder hit by human loss than by economic or insured losses.
World map of natural catastrophes: estimation of the risk according to a social approach
From a different standpoint, the least developed countries remain the most vulnerable to the social consequences of natural catastrophes: mortality, epidemics, loss of livelihood, rise in poverty, etc.