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Since 2022, escalating geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts have profoundly affected aviation insurance, in particular, "war risk " coverage.
Faced with increased exposure to risks, insurers have revised their underwriting conditions and pricing policies, resulting in a significant increase in premiums in regions considered high-risk.
In the Middle East, for instance, following the outbreak of the latest armed conflicts, coverage costs have increased sharply since the end of February 2026. For some policies, premiums have gone up more than fivefold compared to their pre-crisis level.
Other high-risk areas are also subject to severe restrictions, or even exclusions from coverage. For instance, Ukraine, certain regions of Russia, as well as Syria and Yemen are considered by insurers as “excluded areas.” They have become essentially inaccessible to civil aviation since it is no longer possible to insure aircraft and passengers there.
War risk insurance premium rates by region :2022-2026
As a percentage of the hull value
| Region | 2022 premium | 2026 premium | Evolution 2022/2026 |
| Ukraine | 0.10% | Excluded | - |
| Russia (partial) | 0.02% | Excluded | - |
| Iran / Iraq | 0.03% | 0.15 % – 0.25 % | 500% |
| Israel / Lebanon | 0.05% | 0.20 % – 0.35 % | 450% |
| Syria / Yemen | Excluded | Excluded | - |
| Pakistan (period of conflict) | 0.01% | 0.08 % – 0.12 % | 800% |
| Gulf countries (transit) | 0.01% | 0.03 % – 0.06 % | 350% |
| North Africa (Libya) | 0.03% | 0.05 % – 0.10 % | 200% |
| Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) | 0.01% | 0.02 % – 0.04 % | 200% |
| World average | 0.003% | 0.005 % – 0.01 % | 100% |
Source: FlySafe, Aviation risk analysis platform
Driven by the deteriorating global geopolitical context, the volume of aviation war risk premiums has risen sharply, reaching nearly 1.8 billion USD in 2025 compared to approximately 380 million USD in 2021.
Beyond its role in providing compensation, war risk insurance directly influences international air transport. Premium levels and coverage conditions affect route selection, the profitability of connections, and, more broadly, the organization of global air traffic.
Read also | Aviation insurance premiums by region
Middle East conflict: impact on air transport
The armed conflict in the Middle East, which broke out on 28 February 2026, severely disrupted global air travel. Indeed, Fuel supply shortages, soaring kerosene prices (up 120% at the height of the crisis), and route diversions have led to a significant increase in airlines’ operating costs. These disruptions are weighing on carriers’ profitability, increasing operational uncertainty worldwide.
Against this backdrop, the aviation insurance market has tightened significantly. In addition to increased premiums related to war risks, coverage restrictions and rate increases have also been applied to passenger and third-party liability policies.
This deterioration in the market environment has prompted insurers to frequently invoke revision clauses or short-notice termination. Consequently, some air routes crossing high-risk areas have had their insurance coverage limited or even cancelled.
In response to this situation and to mitigate risks, several measures have been announced by the relevant authorities:
- Some flights to the Middle East were suspended and fleets were redeployed away from conflict-affected areas. This reduction in aircraft concentration in high-risk regions helped limit insurers' potential exposure to significant losses and avert a catastrophic scenario,
- European authorities have temporarily suspended the slot rule (the specific times allocated to an airline for takeoffs and landings) with a view to limiting the financial and operational consequences of the crisis. This measure has allowed airlines to preemptively cancel thousands of flights without risking the loss of their slots at major airports,
- The European Commission classified the fuel shortage as an "exceptional circumstance." This decision exempted carriers from the obligation to compensate passengers for cancelled flights, thereby reducing a significant source of financial pressure on the sector.
Ukraine-Russia War: More than 400 aircraft seized
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the aviation insurance market faced one of the largest claims in its recent history. Starting in March 2022, and in response to Western sanctions, lease agreements concluded in Russia with international lessors were terminated.
Russian authorities retained over 400 aircraft (primarily Airbus and Boeing) on their territory, most of which belonged to foreign leasing companies. Russia then seized and transferred these aircraft to local companies for operation.
This event triggered a series of claims under the "hull all-risks" and "war risk" coverage. Insurers were then called upon to cover the total loss of the aircraft, now considered irrecoverable in the absence of a political or diplomatic settlement. Cumulative losses are estimated at between 10 and 15 billion USD. Added to this amount are legal fees and compensation for lessors and manufacturers.
In 2026, numerous legal proceedings still pitted leasing companies against insurers, making this case one of the largest claims in recent aviation insurance history. It should be noted that several agreements were reached between Western lessors and Russian insurers (notably NSK). These agreements facilitated the transfer of ownership of approximately 100 aircraft. However, the majority of the fleet, estimated at 300 aircraft, remained confiscated.
