Geopolitical conflicts pose 14.5 trillion USD risk to the economy

In partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Lloyd's has published a study on systemic risks. It suggests that over the next five years, geopolitical conflicts could generate 14.5 trillion USD in economic losses worldwide.

The study draws up eight possible scenarios. The mildest of these puts economic losses at 7 800 billion USD. The most catastrophic scenario raises this figure to 50 000 billion USD.

With almost 11 billion tonnes of goods transported by sea, the closure of major trade routes represents the greatest threat. For instance, Europe, which depends on other countries to source semiconductors and electronic parts for its industry, could lose up to 3 400 billion USD.

The impact on companies will depend on their geographical location and business sector.