Demographic evolution in Africa: a frenetic population growth
According to UN forecasts, Africa's population growth will be of 90% by 2050.
It will increase to 2.489 billion in the next 30 years. By 2100, the 4 billion inhabitants will be far exceeded.
Also check out Atlas Magazine's article on the world's population.
Population growth by continent
| Continent | Population (in millions of inhabitants) | Evolution 2019-2050 | Evolution 2050-2100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2050 | 2100 | |||
Asia | 4 601.371 | 5 290.263 | 4 719.416 | 15% | -11% |
Africa | 1 308.064 | 2 489.275 | 4 280.127 | 90% | 72% |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 691.454 | 767.432 | 679.993 | 11% | -11% |
Europe | 747.636 | 710.486 | 629.563 | -5% | -11% |
North America | 366.600 | 425.200 | 490.889 | 16% | 15% |
Oceania | 42.128 | 57.376 | 74.916 | 36% | 31% |
World | 7 713.468 | 9 735.034 | 10 874.902 | 26% | 12% |
* Classement par ordre décroissant à l’horizon 2100
Population growth in Africa: Top 10 of the most populous countries in 2100
| Continent | Population (in millions of inhabitants) | Evolution 2019-2050 | Evolution 2050-2100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2050 | 2100 | |||
Nigeria | 200.964 | 401.315 | 732.942 | 99.69% | 82.64% |
RD Congo | 86.791 | 194.489 | 362.031 | 124.09% | 86.14% |
Ethiopia | 112.079 | 205.411 | 294.393 | 83.27% | 43.32% |
Tanzania | 58.005 | 129.387 | 285.652 | 123.06% | 120.77% |
Egypt | 100.388 | 159.957 | 224.735 | 59.34% | 40.50% |
Angola | 31.825 | 77.42 | 188.283 | 143.27% | 143.20% |
Sudan | 42.813 | 81.193 | 142.342 | 89.65% | 75.31% |
Uganda | 44.27 | 89.447 | 136.785 | 102.05% | 52.92% |
Kenya | 52.574 | 92.575 | 125.424 | 76.09% | 35.48% |
South Africa | 58.558 | 75.518 | 79.191 | 28.96% | 4.86% |
Total top 10 | 788.267 | 1506.712 | 2571.778 | 91.14% | 70.69% |
* Ranking in descending order by 2100
By 2100, Nigeria will rank first of the top 10 most populous countries in Africa, a position it already occupies in 2019.
In 2100, the Nigerian population (732.942 million) will be greater than that of all of Europe (629.563 million), also greater than the populations of the North America (490.889 million) and Latin (679.993 million) areas.
Population growth in North Africa by 2100
| Continent | Population (in millions of inhabitants) | Evolution 2019-2050 | Evolution 2050-2100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2050 | 2100 | |||
Egypt | 100.39 | 159.957 | 224.735 | 59.34% | 40.50% |
Soudan | 42.814 | 81.193 | 142.342 | 89.64% | 75.31% |
Algeria | 43.054 | 60.923 | 70.705 | 41.50% | 16.06% |
Morocco | 36.472 | 46.166 | 44.708 | 26.58% | -3.16% |
Mauritania | 4.552 | 8.049 | 13.058 | 76.82% | 62.23% |
Tunisia | 11.694 | 13.797 | 12.972 | 17.98% | -5.98% |
Libya | 6.802 | 8.530 | 8.04 | 25.40% | -5.74% |
Total population of North Africa | 238.976 | 370.085 | 508.52 | 54.86% | 37.41% |
Total population of Africa | 1 308.06 | 2 489.28 | 4 280.13 | 90.30% | 71.94% |
* Ranking in descending order by 2100
In 2019, North Africa gathers 18% of the continent's population. This rate will rise to 15% in 2050 and then to 12% in 2100.
This downward trend is due to a boom in population growth in sub-Saharan Africa and not to a falling birth rate of the populations in the north of the continent.
Population growth in Eastern Africa by 2100
| Continent | Population (in millions of inhabitants) | Evolution 2019-2050 | Evolution 2050-2100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2050 | 2100 | |||
Ethiopia | 112.083 | 205.411 | 294.393 | 83.27% | 43.32% |
Tanzania | 58.007 | 129.387 | 285.652 | 123.05% | 120.77% |
Uganda | 44.271 | 89.447 | 136.785 | 102.04% | 52.92% |
Kenya | 52.575 | 91.575 | 125.424 | 74.18% | 36.96% |
Mozambique | 30.367 | 65.313 | 123.647 | 115.08% | 89.31% |
Burundi | 13.126 | 28.668 | 62.661 | 118.41% | 118.57% |
Somalia | 12.423 | 27.03 | 58.311 | 117.58% | 115.73% |
Rwanda | 12.997 | 21.187 | 25.692 | 63.01% | 21.26% |
Eritrea | 5.754 | 10.421 | 15.616 | 81.11% | 49.85% |
Djibouti | 0.947 | 1.186 | 1.126 | 25.24% | -5.06% |
Total population of Sub-Saharan Africa | 342.55 | 669.625 | 1129.307 | 95.48% | 68.65% |
Total population of Africa | 1 308.06 | 2 489.28 | 4 280.13 | 90.30% | 71.94% |
* Ranking in descending order by 2100
By 2100, East Africa will be home to four of the continent's most populous countries: Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya.
Between 2050 and 2100, this region will experience a decreasing demographic evolution rate. However, in countries such as Tanzania, Somalia and Burundi, the population will more than double between 2050 and 2100.
Population growth in Western Africa
| Continent | Population (in millions of inhabitants) | Evolution 2019-2050 | Evolution 2050-2100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2050 | 2100 | |||
Nigeria | 200.971 | 401.315 | 732.942 | 100% | 83% |
Niger | 23.312 | 65.593 | 164.947 | 181% | 151% |
Côte d’Ivoire | 25.717 | 51.264 | 96.633 | 99% | 89% |
Burkina Faso | 20.322 | 43.432 | 83.194 | 114% | 92% |
Mali | 19.658 | 43.586 | 80.383 | 122% | 84% |
Senegal | 17.487 | 36.223 | 75.042 | 107% | 107% |
Ghana | 30.530 | 50.071 | 73.032 | 64% | 46% |
Guinea | 14.355 | 27.486 | 49.049 | 91% | 78% |
Benin | 12.361 | 22.549 | 35.544 | 82% | 58% |
Togo | 8.294 | 15.681 | 27.873 | 89% | 78% |
Liberia | 5.091 | 9.436 | 15.977 | 85% | 69% |
Sierra Leone | 7.160 | 11.392 | 14.489 | 59% | 27% |
Gambia | 2.326 | 4.981 | 8.896 | 114% | 79% |
Guinea-Bissau | 2.068 | 3.564 | 5.489 | 72% | 54% |
Cap-Vert | 0.553 | 0.707 | 0.680 | 28% | -4% |
Total population of West Africa | 390.205 | 787.28 | 1 464.17 | 102% | 86.29% |
Total population of Africa | 1 308.06 | 2 489.28 | 4 280.13 | 90.30% | 71.94% |
* Ranking in descending order by 2100
By 2100, West Africa will be the most populous region on the continent.
Nigeria, the country with the highest population concentration in Africa, will reach 401 million in 2050 and 732.942 million in 2100. It will become the 3rd most populous country worldwide after China and India.
Population growth in Central Africa
| Continent | Population (in millions of inhabitants) | Evolution 2019-2050 | Evolution 2050-2100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2050 | 2100 | |||
RD Congo | 86.794 | 194.489 | 362.031 | 124% | 86% |
Angola | 31.826 | 77.420 | 188.283 | 143% | 143% |
Cameroun | 25.877 | 50.573 | 90.225 | 95% | 78% |
Chad | 15.947 | 34.031 | 61.850 | 113% | 82% |
Congo | 5.380 | 10.702 | 20.962 | 99% | 96% |
Central African Republic | 5.409 | 8.782 | 12.515 | 62% | 43% |
Gabon | 1.917 | 3.164 | 4.466 | 65% | 41% |
Sao Tomé-et-Principe | 0.211 | 0.353 | 0.538 | 67% | 52% |
Total population of Central Africa | 173.361 | 379.514 | 740.870 | 119% | 95% |
Total population of Africa | 1 308.06 | 2 489.28 | 4 280.13 | 90.30% | 71.94% |
* Ranking in descending order by 2100
The population of Central Africa is 173.36 million in 2019. It is projected to rise to 740.87 million in eighty years.
The most populous countries in the region are the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola, which together will have a population of 550 million by 2100.
Population growth in Southern Africa including the Indian Ocean
| Continent | Population (in millions of inhabitants) | Evolution 2019-2050 | Evolution 2050-2100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2050 | 2100 | |||
Madagascar | 27.799 | 55.294 | 105.499 | 99% | 91% |
Zambia | 18.882 | 42.975 | 104.869 | 128% | 144% |
Malawi | 20.022 | 43.155 | 87.056 | 116% | 102% |
South Africa | 58.559 | 75.518 | 79.191 | 29% | 5% |
Zimbabwe | 17.471 | 29.615 | 40.263 | 70% | 36% |
Namibia | 2.494 | 3.981 | 5.374 | 60% | 35% |
Botswana | 2.303 | 3.51 | 4.166 | 52% | 19% |
Lesotho | 2.303 | 2.665 | 2.695 | 16% | 1% |
Comoros | 0.883 | 1.502 | 2.307 | 70% | 54% |
Eswatini (ex Swaziland) | 1.148 | 1.704 | 2.145 | 48% | 26% |
Maurice | 1.291 | 1.249 | 0.952 | -3% | -24% |
Seychelles | 0.099 | 0.099 | 0.081 | 0.00% | -18.18% |
Total population of Southern Africa | 153.254 | 261.267 | 434.598 | 70.48% | 66.34% |
Total population of Africa | 1 308.06 | 2 489.28 | 4 280.13 | 90.30% | 71.94% |
* Ranking in descending order by 2100
Southern Africa will experience the lowest population growth of the continent. The population will increase to nearly 261 million in 2050 and 435.5 million in 2100.
