Mapping Natural Disaster Risks in Africa

The African continent is exposed to various natural hazards such as floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes, and landslides, the frequency and intensity of which are increasing year by year.

According to Munich Re, economic losses from natural disasters in Africa reached 2.9 billion USD in 2025, compared to 3 billion USD in 2024 and 14.65 billion USD in 2023. The penetration rate of natural disaster insurance remains below 1% for most climate-related risks.

Natural disasters: Summary of global economic and insured losses in 2025

Globally, economic losses from natural disasters reached 224 billion USD in 2025, including 108 billion USD in insured losses. Human losses, meanwhile, amounted to 17 150 deaths.

Economic and insured losses in 2025 by continent

Source : Munich Re, Natural disasters in 2025

Natural disasters: Summary of economic losses in Africa

Africa recorded 75 natural disasters in 2024 ⁽¹⁾, representing 19% of all events reported globally. The continent also accounts for 14.6% of deaths related to natural disasters.

Economic losses remain limited, with Africa sustaining only 1.3% of global damage sustained.

According to the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) ⁽²⁾, average annual infrastructure losses in Africa amount to 12.7 billion USD, 68.7% of which pertained to floods and 27.7% to earthquakes. Three countries account for the highest average annual losses: South Africa (1.7 billion USD), Nigeria (1.1 billion USD), and Algeria (1 billion USD).

⁽¹⁾ 2024 Report of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
⁽²⁾ «Infrastructure Resilience in Africa»: report published in 2025 by the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, an international organization established to strengthen the resilience of infrastructure in the face of natural disasters and climate change

Economic and insured losses in Africa

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Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE, factsheets NatCAT Stats 2024 & 2025 (Full-Year)

Major natural disaster risks in Africa

According to the 2025 World Risk Report (1), 80% of the continent is classified as a high- or very high-risk zone, making it the most vulnerable region in the world.

Floods are the leading cause of death from natural disasters in Africa, ahead of drought which accounts for the hazard affecting the largest number of people.

Floods

Floods include river flooding, urban flooding caused by runoff, and inundation resulting from torrential rains or storm surges.

In Africa, CRED recorded 793 floods during the 2002–2021 period, accounting for an 180% increase compared to the previous 20 years (1982–2001). These events in total claimed the lives of 14 053 people.

The area’s most at risk are West and Central Africa (Niger, Congo, and Senegal river basins), East Africa (Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia), and certain regions of Southern Africa (KwaZulu-Natal, the Zambezi Valley).

The main floods include:

• the 2025 rainy season, which affected 13 of Sudan’s 18 provinces, a country already facing a major humanitarian crisis since the start of the armed conflict in April 2023. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the floods have exacerbated the spread of cholera, with more than 51 200 cases and 1 356 deaths since the beginning of 2025.
• the floods that occurred between June and October 2024: Two Sahelian countries accounted for the highest human toll on the continent: Chad with 576 deaths and Niger with 396 deaths ⁽³⁾.
• The floods in Nigeria from June to October 2022, which affected 33 out of 36 provinces, causing 6.68 billion USD in damage, according to the World Bank.
• the KwaZulu-Natal disaster in April 2022, which claimed more than 430 lives in Durban, resulting in 3.7 billion in economic losses, according to Swiss Re.

⁽³⁾ CRED, 2024 Disasters in Numbers.

Flood risk coverage

On the African continent, flood risk is rarely covered by a specific policy. Coverage is generally included in comprehensive home insurance policies, business property damage policies, or comprehensive agricultural insurance policies

In June 2023, the African Risk Capacity (ARC) ⁽⁴⁾ launched “Flood Risk Insurance,” the first continent-wide parametric flood insurance mechanism. This coverage is currently available in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo.

⁽⁴⁾ African Risk Capacity is a specialized agency established in 2012 by the African Union to help African countries cope with the risks of natural disasters.

Drougth

Drought is defined as a prolonged shortage of rainfall, leading to a decline in water resources, impacting agriculture, livestock, and food security. It is the natural hazard that affects the largest number of people on the continent.

The most vulnerable regions are the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya), the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad), and Southern Africa (Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar).

The 2024 CRED report notes that between January and March 2024, drought affected more than 25 million people in Southern Africa, primarily in Zambia (9.8 million people affected), Zimbabwe (7.6 million), and Malawi (6.1 million). This drought episode is one of the events that affected the largest number of people worldwide in 2024.

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the drought that affected the Horn of Africa between 2020 and 2023 represents the longest episode ever recorded in the region. This phenomenon placed 31.9 million people in a humanitarian crisis and resulted in the death of 13.2 million head of livestock. In Kenya, livestock-related losses are estimated at over 1.5 billion USD.

Over the 2002–2021 period, CRED recorded 137 episodes of severe drought in Africa, resulting in 20 821 deaths and affecting approximately 295 million people, that is, five times more than floods.

Drought insurance

Drought risk coverage relies primarily on parametric insurance mechanisms, which automatically trigger compensation when certain predefined indicators (rainfall, satellite data, or vegetation conditions) reach critical thresholds.

At the level of African governments, African Risk Capacity (ARC) has offered drought coverage since 2014. This initiative has mobilized over 1 billion USD in guarantees, protecting nearly 100 million people across 39 member states.

At the agricultural level, several specialized operators are active, notably:

• Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise Ltd (ACRE Africa), which has provided protection to 1.5 million farmers with a total coverage worth 180 million USD,
• Pula, an insurtech company specialized in agricultural insurance, with a presence notably in Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Nigeria,
• The Compagnie Nationale d'Assurance Agricole du Sénégal (CNAAS) established in 2008. The Senegalese government holds a 36% stake in CNAAS and subsidizes 50% of the premiums.

With a penetration rate of less than 3%, agricultural insurance in sub-Saharan Africa remains very low.

Tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones are intense low-pressure systems that form over the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. They are accompanied by high winds, torrential rains, and storm surges.

The countries most at risk are Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, the Comoros, Mayotte, Mauritius, and, to a lesser extent, Tanzania.

In recent years, three major cyclones have lashed Africa:

• Cyclone Idai, March 2019, which claimed the lives of 1 303 people and affected more than 3 million others in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs at 4.3 billion USD;
• Cyclone Freddy, February–March 2023, which claimed 1 209 lives in Malawi;
• Cyclone Chido, December 2024, with total economic losses estimated by Gallagher Re at 3.9 billion USD. In Mayotte, the Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR) estimated insured losses at between 650 and 800 million EUR (675 to 831 million USD), a figure that excludes both damage to public infrastructure and uninsured losses. In Mozambique, the same cyclone killed 120 people, destroyed approximately 110 000 homes, and affected 700 000 people in the province of Cabo Delgado alone.

Cyclone coverage

For both individuals and businesses, cyclone risk is generally covered by comprehensive home insurance or property damage policies. At the country level, ARC offers “Tropical Cyclone,” a plan that supplements national mechanisms. In October 2025, ARC paid out 5.4 million USD to Mozambique to address the consequences of the droughts of 2024 and 2025 and Cyclone Chido.

Earthquakes

In Africa, earthquakes are concentrated mainly in the East African Rift Valley and North Africa. According to the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), earthquakes account for 27.7% of the average annual losses affecting African infrastructure.

The most vulnerable areas are:

• Morocco: the northeast of the country: Al Hoceima, Nador, the Rif region, and the southwest: Agadir,
• Algeria: Algiers and along the coastal strip: the regions of Chlef, Boumerdes, Bejaia, and Constantine,
• Egypt: along the Red Sea, the Gulf of Suez, and the Gulf of Aqaba,
• Ethiopia: along the Ethiopian Great Rift Valley, particularly in the Afar, Oromia, and Amhara regions,
• Tanzania: the northwest (Lake Victoria region), the Western Rift Valley, the Eastern Rift Valley, and the Mbeya region.

The Al Haouz earthquake (Morocco), which occurred on 8 September 2023, in the Moroccan High Atlas region with a magnitude of 6.8, caused 2 946 deaths and 7 billion USD in economic losses. The reconstruction plan allocates 120 billion MAD (approximately 11.7 billion USD) for the 2023–2028 period.

Earthquake Insurance

In most African countries, seismic risk is covered under comprehensive home insurance or property damage policies.

In Morocco, earthquakes are among the hazards covered by the “Catastrophic Events” scheme established by Law 110-14 ⁽⁵⁾. The Al Haouz earthquake stands as the first real test of this system, following the official declaration of a state of natural disaster in October 2023.

In Algeria, a natural disaster scheme has been in place since 2003 designed to cover seismic risk while remaining optional for individuals.

⁽⁵⁾ The “Catastrophic Events” regime was enacted on 25 August 2016. It entered into force in January 2020.

Land storms and landslides

Land storms include torrential rains, severe thunderstorms, and extreme winds not associated with cyclones. Landslides and mudslides are generally caused by intense rainfall or soil saturation. According to the CDRI, landslides account for 0.5% of average annual infrastructure losses.

The most devastating events are:

Storm Daniel: Occurring in September 2023 in eastern Libya, the storm caused two dams upstream of the city of Derna to fail. According to the EM-DAT global disaster database, the event resulted in 12 352 casualties, including nearly 8 000 missing people, and 6.2 billion USD in economic losses.

The landslides in South Kivu Province in May 2023, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This disaster resulted in nearly 500 deaths officially reported by the authorities, more than 5 000 people missing, 3 000 homes completely destroyed, and approximately 15 000 people directly affected.

The landslide that occurred on 31 August 2025, in Sudan, following several days of torrential rain. The disaster destroyed the village of Tarasin completely in the Marrah Mountains (Central Darfur), killing more than 1 000 people according to local authorities. For Munich Re, this event ranks among the four deadliest natural disasters in the world in 2025.

Landslide Risk Coverage

In Africa, landslides and mudslides are not covered by specific insurance policies. When covered, these events are comprised indirectly in comprehensive home insurance policies, provided that the triggering events such as heavy rain, is itself insured.